Air quality and greenhouse gas emissions (Chapter 3)

Abstract

Shale gas development (SGD) presents opportunities and risks with regards to air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is a potential opportunity to reduce emissions, if shale gas replaces ‘dirtier’ (more emissions-intensive) fuels, however, there is also a risk of increased emissions if shale gas is added to the existing energy mix, and displaces cleaner fuels for new capacity. Emissions of GHGs have global impacts, while impacts from air pollution are generally assessed at local and regional scales. The highest risks assessed are due to leakage of methane prior to end-use, a potent GHG; and the exposure of workers to air pollutants on the wellpad. For all three SGD scenarios considered in this assessment, the scale of SGD in South Africa is assumed to be smaller than SGD in the United States of America (USA), which results in lower estimates of air pollution and GHG emissions for South Africa as compared to the USA, even in the Big Gas scenario. An urgent priority is the early establishment of baselines (through air quality and GHG monitoring stations in the study area, and inventories for air pollutants and GHG emissions), to be followed by the design of continuous monitoring systems. Based on the scientific assessment, it is recommended that further research into the existing regulatory framework and its capacity to deal sufficiently with SGD, along with the potential to enhance institutional and human capacity be explored. Industrial activity in the study area is currently low and the need for this type of regulatory capacity does not currently exist. Good practice guidelines are needed to minimise impacts on air quality and reduce GHG emissions, with guidelines for control technologies, consideration of effective legal regulation, early establishment of baselines and continuous monitoring, and good governance enabled by coordination across several institutions.