Bayesian methods are influenced by choice of prior. None-the-less, their importance cannot be disregarded in light of current exercise and existing other literature . The way forward is to try other large scale Bayesian models that incorporate other potential fundamentals.
Reference:
Gupta, R and Das, S. 2008. Predicting downturns in the US housing market: a Bayesian approach . South African Statistical Association Conference, Pretoria, South Africa, October 27-31, 2008
Gupta, R., & Das, S. (2008). Predicting downturns in the US housing market: a Bayesian approach [Conference presentation]. SASA 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5474
Gupta, R, and Sonali Das. "Predicting downturns in the US housing market: a Bayesian approach [Conference presentation]." (2008): http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5474
Gupta R, Das S, Predicting downturns in the US housing market: a Bayesian approach [Conference presentation]; SASA 2008; 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5474 .