Forecasting household transport energy demand in South African cities

Abstract

The South African built environment is forever changing with implications on the demand for travel related energy demand at a household level. Nonetheless, the development control and development planning practices in the country seldom take into account the implications of changes in the built environment on energy demand. Over time, from a transport perspective, the disregard for transport energy demand implications of land use developments could imply remarkably increased per capita cost of transport and the overall costs of living. Based on the data available such as household travel surveys and transport models, the paper illustrates how transport energy implications of development proposals can be modelled and forecasted. The City of Johannesburg is used as a case study. In the paper, vehicle kilometres travelled is used as a surrogate measure for transport energy demand. The paper concludes that development control and development planning practices that aim to minimise the rate of increase of transport costs, for which energy is a significant component, should be central in South African cities. This is achievable through revised design philosophy in Town Planning Schemes, and recognition of the interaction effects of land use developments. The shortcomings of the modelling approach adopted in the case study are discussed as well as some recommendation to address them.