Integrated systems understanding using bayesian networks: measuring the effectiveness of a weapon system

Abstract

Complex systems can be described as systems-of-systems as they comprise a hierarchy of systems. The links between sub-systems are often obscure and non-linear and this results in a lack of a whole-systems view and appropriate understanding of the system. At the core of the research question is the investigation of Bayesian networks as a method to integrate sub-system behaviour in order to evaluate final system performance. The research case study is the measurement of effectiveness of the Frigate Self-Guided weapon system. The results indicate that the method integrates and quantifies links between sub-systems to an extent where questions asked by the end-user can be answered in a quantitative manner