dc.contributor.author |
Raw, JL
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|
dc.contributor.author |
Van der Stocken, T
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|
dc.contributor.author |
Carroll, D
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dc.contributor.author |
Harris, LR
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dc.contributor.author |
Rajkaran, A
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dc.contributor.author |
Van Niekerk, Lara
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dc.contributor.author |
Adams, JB
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dc.date.accessioned |
2023-04-06T12:16:35Z |
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dc.date.available |
2023-04-06T12:16:35Z |
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dc.date.issued |
2022-11 |
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dc.identifier.citation |
Raw, J., Van der Stocken, T., Carroll, D., Harris, L., Rajkaran, A., Van Niekerk, L. & Adams, J. 2022. Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change. <i>Journal of Ecology, 111(1).</i> http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12726 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.issn |
0022-0477 |
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dc.identifier.issn |
1365-2745 |
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dc.identifier.uri |
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14020
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|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12726
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dc.description.abstract |
Latitudinal range limits for mangroves on high-energy, wave-dominated coasts are controlled by geomorphological features and estuarine dynamics. Mangroves reach a southern global range limit along the South African coastline, but the distribution is patchy, with stands occurring in only 16% of the estuaries in the region. Yet, the persistence of forests planted >50 years ago beyond the natural distribution limit suggests that additional estuaries could support mangroves. Understanding regional drivers is necessary to inform global-scale estimates for how this important ecosystem is predicted to respond to climate change. Here, we combine species distribution modelling (MaxEnt), Lagrangian particle tracking using an eddy- and tide-resolving numerical ocean model, and connectivity matrices, to identify suitable mangrove habitats along the South African coastline at present, as well as under the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Within the current South African distribution range (±900 km), eight more estuaries were identified to be suitable under contemporary conditions. When considering potential range extension (±110 km), an additional 14 suitable estuaries were identified. Connectivity matrices suggest limited long-distance dispersal, stranding mostly at or near the release location, and a decreased probability of connectivity towards the range limit. Under both future climate scenarios, 30% of estuaries currently supporting mangroves are predicted to become unsuitable, while an additional six estuaries beyond the current distribution are predicted to become suitable. However, there is limited connectivity between these new sites and established forests. Synthesis. This study shows that dispersal substantially limits mangrove distribution at the southern African range limit and highlights the importance of including this process in species distribution models. Ultimately, our results provide new insight into mangrove conservation and management at range limits that are not controlled predominantly by temperature, as it has been assumed that mangroves will largely expand to higher latitudes under climate change. |
en_US |
dc.format |
Fulltext |
en_US |
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_US |
dc.relation.uri |
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.14020 |
en_US |
dc.source |
Journal of Ecology, 111(1) |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Avicennia marina |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Climate change |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Coastal wetlands |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Dispersal limitation |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Lagrangian particle tracking |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Range expansion |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Species distribution modelling |
en_US |
dc.title |
Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change |
en_US |
dc.type |
Article |
en_US |
dc.description.pages |
139-155 |
en_US |
dc.description.note |
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. © 2022 The Authors. |
en_US |
dc.description.cluster |
Smart Places |
en_US |
dc.description.impactarea |
Coastal Systems |
en_US |
dc.identifier.apacitation |
Raw, J., Van der Stocken, T., Carroll, D., Harris, L., Rajkaran, A., Van Niekerk, L., & Adams, J. (2022). Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change. <i>Journal of Ecology, 111(1)</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12726 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.chicagocitation |
Raw, JL, T Van der Stocken, D Carroll, LR Harris, A Rajkaran, Lara Van Niekerk, and JB Adams "Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change." <i>Journal of Ecology, 111(1)</i> (2022) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12726 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation |
Raw J, Van der Stocken T, Carroll D, Harris L, Rajkaran A, Van Niekerk L, et al. Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change. Journal of Ecology, 111(1). 2022; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12726. |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.ris |
TY - Article
AU - Raw, JL
AU - Van der Stocken, T
AU - Carroll, D
AU - Harris, LR
AU - Rajkaran, A
AU - Van Niekerk, Lara
AU - Adams, JB
AB - Latitudinal range limits for mangroves on high-energy, wave-dominated coasts are controlled by geomorphological features and estuarine dynamics. Mangroves reach a southern global range limit along the South African coastline, but the distribution is patchy, with stands occurring in only 16% of the estuaries in the region. Yet, the persistence of forests planted >50 years ago beyond the natural distribution limit suggests that additional estuaries could support mangroves. Understanding regional drivers is necessary to inform global-scale estimates for how this important ecosystem is predicted to respond to climate change. Here, we combine species distribution modelling (MaxEnt), Lagrangian particle tracking using an eddy- and tide-resolving numerical ocean model, and connectivity matrices, to identify suitable mangrove habitats along the South African coastline at present, as well as under the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Within the current South African distribution range (±900 km), eight more estuaries were identified to be suitable under contemporary conditions. When considering potential range extension (±110 km), an additional 14 suitable estuaries were identified. Connectivity matrices suggest limited long-distance dispersal, stranding mostly at or near the release location, and a decreased probability of connectivity towards the range limit. Under both future climate scenarios, 30% of estuaries currently supporting mangroves are predicted to become unsuitable, while an additional six estuaries beyond the current distribution are predicted to become suitable. However, there is limited connectivity between these new sites and established forests. Synthesis. This study shows that dispersal substantially limits mangrove distribution at the southern African range limit and highlights the importance of including this process in species distribution models. Ultimately, our results provide new insight into mangrove conservation and management at range limits that are not controlled predominantly by temperature, as it has been assumed that mangroves will largely expand to higher latitudes under climate change.
DA - 2022-11
DB - ResearchSpace
DP - CSIR
J1 - Journal of Ecology, 111(1)
KW - Avicennia marina
KW - Climate change
KW - Coastal wetlands
KW - Dispersal limitation
KW - Lagrangian particle tracking
KW - Range expansion
KW - Species distribution modelling
LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za
PY - 2022
SM - 0022-0477
SM - 1365-2745
T1 - Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change
TI - Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12726
ER -
|
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.worklist |
26584 |
en_US |