dc.contributor.author |
Chemura, A
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|
dc.contributor.author |
Nangombe, Shingirai S
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dc.contributor.author |
Gleixner, S
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|
dc.contributor.author |
Chinyoka, S
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|
dc.contributor.author |
Gornott, C
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dc.date.accessioned |
2023-03-31T14:22:28Z |
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dc.date.available |
2023-03-31T14:22:28Z |
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dc.date.issued |
2022-07 |
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dc.identifier.citation |
Chemura, A., Nangombe, S.S., Gleixner, S., Chinyoka, S. & Gornott, C. 2022. Changes in climate extremes and their effect on maize (Zea mays L.) suitability over Southern Africa. <i>Frontiers in Climate, 4.</i> http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12704 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.issn |
2624-9553 |
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dc.identifier.uri |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.890210
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|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12704
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|
dc.description.abstract |
Southern Africa has been identified as one of the hotspot areas of climate extremes increasing, at the same time many communities in the region are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is vulnerable to these rainfall and temperature extremes. The aim of this study is to understand changes in extreme indices during the agricultural season under climate change and how that affect the modeling of maize suitability in Southern Africa. We analyze the changes in rainfall and its extreme indices (consecutive dry days, heavy rain events and prolonged rainfall events), and temperature and its extreme indices (hot night temperatures, hot day temperatures and frequency of very hot days) from the past (1986–2014) to the future (2036–2064) and integrate these into a maize suitability model. Temperature extremes are projected to increase in both duration and intensity, particularly in the eastern parts of the region. Also, consecutive dry days are projected to increase over larger areas during the agricultural season, while rainfall will be less in sums, heavier in intensity and less prolonged in duration. Including extreme climate indices in maize suitability modeling improves the efficiency of the maize suitability model and shows more severe changes in maize suitability over Southern Africa than using season-long climatic variables. We conclude that changes in climate extremes will increase and complicate the livelihood-climate nexus in Southern Africa in the future, and therefore, a set of comprehensive adaptation options for the agricultural sector are needed. These include the use of heat, drought and high-intensity rainfall tolerant maize varieties, irrigation and/or soil water conservation techniques, and in some cases switching from maize to other crops. |
en_US |
dc.format |
Fulltext |
en_US |
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_US |
dc.relation.uri |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.890210/full |
en_US |
dc.source |
Frontiers in Climate, 4 |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Climate change |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Maize production |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Climatic variables |
en_US |
dc.title |
Changes in climate extremes and their effect on maize (Zea mays L.) suitability over Southern Africa |
en_US |
dc.type |
Article |
en_US |
dc.description.pages |
14 |
en_US |
dc.description.note |
Copyright © 2022 Chemura, Nangombe, Gleixner, Chinyoka and Gornott. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
en_US |
dc.description.cluster |
Smart Places |
en_US |
dc.description.impactarea |
Climate and Air quality modelling |
en_US |
dc.identifier.apacitation |
Chemura, A., Nangombe, S. S., Gleixner, S., Chinyoka, S., & Gornott, C. (2022). Changes in climate extremes and their effect on maize (Zea mays L.) suitability over Southern Africa. <i>Frontiers in Climate, 4</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12704 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.chicagocitation |
Chemura, A, Shingirai S Nangombe, S Gleixner, S Chinyoka, and C Gornott "Changes in climate extremes and their effect on maize (Zea mays L.) suitability over Southern Africa." <i>Frontiers in Climate, 4</i> (2022) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12704 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation |
Chemura A, Nangombe SS, Gleixner S, Chinyoka S, Gornott C. Changes in climate extremes and their effect on maize (Zea mays L.) suitability over Southern Africa. Frontiers in Climate, 4. 2022; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12704. |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.ris |
TY - Article
AU - Chemura, A
AU - Nangombe, Shingirai S
AU - Gleixner, S
AU - Chinyoka, S
AU - Gornott, C
AB - Southern Africa has been identified as one of the hotspot areas of climate extremes increasing, at the same time many communities in the region are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is vulnerable to these rainfall and temperature extremes. The aim of this study is to understand changes in extreme indices during the agricultural season under climate change and how that affect the modeling of maize suitability in Southern Africa. We analyze the changes in rainfall and its extreme indices (consecutive dry days, heavy rain events and prolonged rainfall events), and temperature and its extreme indices (hot night temperatures, hot day temperatures and frequency of very hot days) from the past (1986–2014) to the future (2036–2064) and integrate these into a maize suitability model. Temperature extremes are projected to increase in both duration and intensity, particularly in the eastern parts of the region. Also, consecutive dry days are projected to increase over larger areas during the agricultural season, while rainfall will be less in sums, heavier in intensity and less prolonged in duration. Including extreme climate indices in maize suitability modeling improves the efficiency of the maize suitability model and shows more severe changes in maize suitability over Southern Africa than using season-long climatic variables. We conclude that changes in climate extremes will increase and complicate the livelihood-climate nexus in Southern Africa in the future, and therefore, a set of comprehensive adaptation options for the agricultural sector are needed. These include the use of heat, drought and high-intensity rainfall tolerant maize varieties, irrigation and/or soil water conservation techniques, and in some cases switching from maize to other crops.
DA - 2022-07
DB - ResearchSpace
DP - CSIR
J1 - Frontiers in Climate, 4
KW - Climate change
KW - Maize production
KW - Climatic variables
LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za
PY - 2022
SM - 2624-9553
T1 - Changes in climate extremes and their effect on maize (Zea mays L.) suitability over Southern Africa
TI - Changes in climate extremes and their effect on maize (Zea mays L.) suitability over Southern Africa
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12704
ER -
|
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.worklist |
26695 |
en_US |