South Africa’s coastal climate risk: A national assessment

Abstract

South Africa's coastal zone is an attractive space for economic and recreational activities. Approximately 60% of the South African economy depends on coastal natural resources and trade infrastructure such as ports. As of 2013, an estimated 3.5 million people are residing within 5-7 km from the coast line, 60% thereof in dense metropolitan areas. Natural and man-made coastal infrastructure is being exposed to natural hazards such as floods and erosion, regularly causing severe damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and economy. This an expected coastal population increase exceeding national and regional growth, the amount of people and infrastructures potentially being exposed to coastal hazards is expected to increase significantly within the next 30 years. This risk is exacerbated by the expected effects of climate change, such as sea level rise and increased storminess on SA's coasts. In order to assess the extent of people and coastal infrastructure at risk, the South African Department for Environmental Affairs commissioned the conduction of the geospatial National Coastal Assessment for a comprehensive, cross-disciplinary and integrated Status Quo Assessment of the coast and the development of a Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, which focused on the assessment of future coastal and estuarine flood and erosion risk. In this presentation we will show some of the core findings of the amalgamated results of these both projects, e.g. identifying core areas at risk of flood and erosion, vulnerability profiles of people and communities affected, as well as some cross-disciplinary results highlighting potential and existing coastal land use conflicts and synergies.