CSIR launches novel online climate risk profiling and adaptation tool: The Green Book

Abstract

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has recently launched a state-of-the-art online climate risk profiling and adaptation tool to assist municipalities across South Africa to assess their risk and vulnerabilities, and respond by adapting settlements to climate change. The Green Book looks forwards to the year 2050 by projecting settlement growth combined with quantitative, scientific evidence of the likely impacts that climate change will have on South African towns and cities and its key resources. The tool provides appropriate adaptation measures to be considered for implementation towards the development of climate resilient settlements. The ultimate goal of the Green Book is to contribute to resilient, sustainable and liveable South African settlements through climate change adaptation. Co-funded by the Canadian International Development Research Centre and the CSIR and produced in collaboration with South Africa’s National Disaster Management Centre, the Green Book is the result of a 3-year initiative. More than 50 researchers and numerous stakeholders and reviewers were involved in producing the Green Book and reviewing its findings. There has been a proliferation of weather-related disasters globally and an increase in associated damage in terms of geographical extent, size of affected population and economic costs.1 The rapidly changing climate is a key global challenge that needs action from all spheres of society. Environmental risks – namely extreme weather events, climate change mitigation and adaptation policy failure, and natural and anthropogenic environmental disasters – are currently ranked among the top ten global risks in terms of likelihood and impact.2 South Africa has not been spared from the impacts of climate-related disasters in recent years (Figure 1). Extreme weather events observed over the region have resulted in increased frequency and intensity of fires, floods, hailstorms and droughts.3 The severe drought that threatened to leave more than 4.2 million residents and businesses in Cape Town without water between April and June 2018 is an indication of the vulnerability of the country to climate change. The economic cost associated with the drought for the 5-month period from January to May 2018 was in excess of ZAR1.2 billion,4 while damages from the Knysna fires and storm-related flooding in Cape Town in the 5-month period from June to October 2017 is estimated to have cost more than ZAR4 billion. Other parts of South Africa were also gripped by the multi-year drought between 2015 and 2018. Vegetation greenness indices derived from satellite data revealed that six of the nine provinces were experiencing drought conditions in 2015.